Starters
Center-Dwight Howard vs Andrew Bynum/Pau Gasol
Advantage-Orlando
Why? Well...umm...in scientific terms, Howard's a better player. A couple of years ago this was even. Bynum and Howard were competing for the best young center in the game. Bynum then had a knee surgery and another one and he's now a shadow of his former self. If Bynum's active and plays to potential, this is a dead heat. Bynum is one of only a few centers in the league who's actually as big as Howard is so it's purely a skill thing. Howard's been dominant, Bynum couldn't control Nene. Advantage Orlando. But wait! You also have Pau listed! Yes I do. That's because Lamar Odom gets starters minutes at Power Forward and Pau then shifts to center. This is a classic power vs finesse matchup (I won't insult you in telling which side is which). Overall Howard and his power win because he will out rebound Pau and should be able to push Gasol around on the block. That being said Pau was assertive in Games 5 and 6 against the Nuggets and might continue it (but I'm not holding my breath). However until I see it (and it is rebounding and defense, Pau will get his points) I still give the nod to Orlando.
Power Forward-Rashard Lewis vs Pau Gasol/Lamar Odom
Advantage-LA
Why? Remember, the definition of a mismatch is a distinct advantage for one side. Based on the Lewis/Gasol matchup there is no advantage. Pau is 7'1", Lewis is 6'10". Gasol can do whatever he likes on the offensive end. However, even though Pau likes to play outside, he doesn't like to play 23' from the basket which is where Rashard Lewis camps on the offensive end. Lewis is by no means a traditional PF and is really a big SF and Pau won't be able to stay out on him or keep up with him off the dribble which would leave things at a draw. However as I said above Lamar Odom gets starters minutes and will be playing at the 4. Unlike Pau, Odom can guard Lewis and just like Pau he can go down in the post. This gives the advantage back to LA, and its a huge advantage if Odom keeps up his play from late in the Denver series. As usual Lamar is the X-Factor so advantage LA.
Small Forward-Hedo Turkoglu vs Trevor Ariza
Advantage-Orlando
Hedo Turkoglu is Orlando's best overall player. That being said this isn't a huge advantage for Orlando. Ariza is 6'8" and plays bigger because he's freakishly long and thus Turkoglu's size isn't a huge problem. Ariza has also proven that he can guard big guys with guard skills as he played Carmelo Anthony against the Nuggets (and Chauncey Billups on a particular Game 1 inbounds play; ok so that's not really relevant but it's always fun to bring up!). Although Ariza isn't a huge offensive threat you do have to account for him and he does move well without the ball so Turkoglu will have to play some defense. That being said Turkoglu is still the better player and is Orlando's primary play maker so he gets the check even if only by a slight edge.
Shooting Guard-Courtney Lee vs Kobe Bryant
Advantage-Really?
Surprise! The biggest matchup problem in the series is Kobe Bryant! First let's give props to Courtney Lee. He's a good defender, a good scorer, can't be left open, and is most of all fearless. That being said, he, like every other human on the planet, has no chance of stopping Kobe Bryant. Kobe can only be contained, he cannot be stopped. Expect to see a healthy dose Mikael Pietrus but he doesn't have a shot either. Unlike when he was guarding LeBron he can't play off Kobe and Kobe has a post game. I could keep going, but that would be wasting both of our time. Advantage LA, let's continue.
Point Guard-Rafer Alston vs Derek Fisher
Advantage-None
Rafer Alston is fast, but he's not Aaron Brooks fast and thus Derek Fisher should be ok. He also shot better at the end of the Western Conference finals and thus is no longer a liability on offense. Alston is a good PG, but he's nothing special. Overall a very lackluster PG matchup and no advantage either way.
Bench-Key Reserves
Orlando: Marcin Gortat, Mikael Pietrus, Anthony Johnson, J.J. Reddick
Los Angeles: (Lamar Odom), Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Luke Walton, Sasha Vujacic
Advantage-LA
The first guy to come out of the game for either side will be either Courtney Lee or Andrew Bynum. Lee will be replaced by Pietrus and have the task of guarding Kobe which as discussed above can't be done. Bynum will be replaced by Lamar Odom which means now Rashard Lewis is no longer bombs away and the offense is going to have to come from Dwight Howard for Orlando. These two subs don't really change the game however because no major advantage is created or taken away, and I count Odom as a starter anyway because he plays more than Bynum.
However when the guards start switching is when LA can jump. Anthony Johnson is big and slow and has absolutely no chance of staying in front Jordan Farmar or Shannon Brown. I expect to see a good bit of Farmar this series as he is a true PG as opposed to Brown who is still learning on the fly and unlike in the previous two series Brown's D on the opposing PG won't be needed as heavily. Sasha Vujacic has been awful these playoffs but he could thrive in the wide open game that will more than likely be played. He still has a quick trigger and if he's on Orlando is in big trouble for two reasons. 1) 3 points are worth more than 2 (as Orlando knows from its own offense) and Vujacic lives behind the arc and 2) If Sasha is in, Kobe is out and a well-rested Kobe late is a nightmare for everyone that doesn't have Lakers on their chest.
Luke Walton could also be huge this series. He's a versatile big guy. Sound familiar? He can guard Turkoglu and Lewis and is a playmaker on offense and will make those guys work on the defensive end. As for Orlando's subs, they don't do a whole lot. Gortat has a decent mid-range jumper but nothing LA can't easily guard and he's not good enough to guard Gasol or Odom. Reddick doesn't get the run to make an impact and he can easily be slowed by Vujacic or God forbid he winds up matched up against Kobe.
Simply put, LA has a massive advantage on the bench and the most significant advantage amongst starters. Add in a coaching advantage and home-court advantage and the advantage obviously goes to LA. So there it is. LA wins the finals. You didn't hear it here first, but you did hear it here. I'm going to say LA in 6 and then when I'm right I'll put on my Lakers shirt and run around in the streets.
I typically end with some witty remark but I'm not completely focused. I'm listening to Tirico and Van Pelt and Scott is by himself which means most of the show has had nothing to do with sports and I've been busy being distracted by that. I'm also a month removed from school and thus my brain is officially off. I start my summer job as a camp counselor on Monday and for the first month I'm stuck with Kindergartners and 1st graders so my brain then will go from off to mush. However I will continue to blog and what ensues might not make much sense, but as always I can promise it will be entertaining.
Shoutout to Dari Nowkwah of ESPN for reading the blog as well to Mike Trudell out in LA for the same. Also another HUGE thank you to Lakers Executive VP Jeanie Buss who also took time to read the blog. Keep reading, keep commenting, and keep following me on Twitter at twitter.com/choffman223. Ok that's all for now, let the mush begin.
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