Showing posts with label Denver Nuggets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Denver Nuggets. Show all posts

Monday, May 25, 2009

Basketball 101: Matchups

We hear it all the time.  Basketball is a game of matchups.  But what does that really mean?  Well luckily for all of you I'm here to explain it, because, like in most things in life, there is a whole lot of crap out there to sift through.  However creating matchup problems in basketball is slightly more difficult than putting a big guy on a little guy so he's taller.  There are a few things that go into it with the primary one being that one player must have a distinct advantage over the other. 

To me, the most commonly misdiagnosed mismatch is that of size.  Size can create huge mismatches however its not a true mismatch if its offset when the smaller player is faster.  This is the same with speed when its called a mismatch against a bigger player.  In order to illustrate this let's pick on my favorite player to pick on lately and that's Derek Fisher.  In the Lakers last series Fisher was matched up against Aaron Brooks who was a few inches shorter and 40 lbs lighter than Fish.  Size advantage goes to the Lakers.  However Brooks was infinitely faster and quicker than Fisher so the speed advantage went to the Rockets.  This in theory is not a mismatch and for about 4 minutes in the entire series it played out that way.  While Brooks was able to run around like crazy, getting wherever he wanted while Fish was hopelessly chasing him, using the advantage he had, Fisher only used the advantage he had a few times for one stretch of one game.  What Fisher should have done is taken Brooks down in the post and thrown him around like a rag doll.  He didn't.  This than created a mismatch in the Rockets favor, and thus there was a legit matchup problem for LA.  That being said Houston had a large matchup problem inside once Yao went down in that they were small, and finally LA exploited it in Game 7.

There are some guys that just by being on the floor create matchup nightmares for coaches.  Right now this is Stan Van Gundy's problem.  Lebron James can guard all 5 positions and no one can guard him and thus he's a matchup problem instantly  (SVG said in his post game presser after Game 1 that he doesn't have a clue what to do with him).  The good thing for Stan Van though is that the other 3 of the 4 other positions on the floor are going his way.  Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis are both big, quick, and skilled players.  Anderson Varejao is big, not quick, and his skill is growing hair.  Lebron can guard one of them but he can't guard both and thus whoever is at the 4 has a huge advantage over Cleveland and that's why the Magic are up 2-1.  At the center position, Big Z has about as good of a chance as I do guarding Dwight Howard which is none what so freaking ever.  Then for the surprise of the series.  Delonte West and Courtney Lee should be even but West is playing horribly and Lee is playing remarkably well for a rookie.  And while this hasn't been enough to turn the series, add in the fact that Mikael Pietrus has been huge and Delonte has absolutely no shot at guarding him because Pietrus is much bigger and stronger and Orlando has a huge mismatch at Shooting Guard.  In theory PG should be even with no mismatch, just an advantage to Cleveland because Mo Williams is the better player.  However since Mo forgot how to shoot and Rafer Alston is playing so well he might have to slap somebody (I stole that from Jemele Hill but it's funny, so laugh it up) the advantage has gone to Orlando.  So let's review:

Pos Advantage (in terms of matchups)
PG Draw
SG ORL
SF CLE
PF ORL
C ORL

And you wonder why Orlando is not only up in this series but has owned Cleveland over the past 3 years.

Now to the West.  Kobe Bryant is the same as Lebron in that he can guard whoever is attempting to guard him and they can't.  Once again Derek Fisher is a matchup nightmare for his own team because right now he can't even keep up with Chauncey Billups.  Luckily for Laker fans, Phil Jackson is a master of matchups (although I think he's missing a few potential series clinchers that I'll share below) and has put Kobe on Chauncey and thus left Fisher on Dahntay Jones who only shoots because that's what you're supposed to do when you're wide open even though he and everyone else knows its not going in.  That being said Fisher isn't doing anything offensively and some of the credit has to go to Billups.  Despite Trevor Ariza's outstanding play, he has had trouble guarding Melo because Melo is so freakishly strong.  Melo can also guard Ariza because he's quick enough (definition of a mismatch? I think so!).  The PF is an advantage for the Lakers because Kenyon Martin isn't a threat on offense and Pau Gasol has him by a good 5".  The center position is a wash because Bynum and Nene can guard each other blah blah blah you've been paying attention and you know why by now. 

Pos Advantage
PG DEN
SG LA
SF DEN
PF LA
C None

Ah but it doesn't stop there.  You see, there are more players in basketball than those who start, and this is why LA is up, and will win this series.  When Billups goes out, Anthony Carter comes in.  When Fisher comes out, Jordan Farmar comes in.  Huge advantage LA because Farmar is a good defender, Carter is nothing on offense,  and Farmar is way too fast for Carter to chase around (all is also true with Shannon Brown).  When J.R. Smith comes in there is initially a matchup problem for LA with him against Sasha Vujacic.  Sasha is a very good defender, however J.R. Smith is elite on the offensive end when he's on.  LA has a simple solution to that though and that is Kobe comes back in and that's the end of that.  Luke Walton helps to neutralize Melo and is a good passer on the offensive end however nothing major of note there.  Then we get to the big men.  And this is where it gets fun.  Chris Andersen is one of the best shot blockers in the league from the weak side.  However when he tries to guard anybody on the post its futile.  Thus when Lamar Odom comes in it is a huge advantage for LA.  He can post Andersen up or take him outside because he's a PG in a Power Forward's body.  This brings Andersen away from the rim, opening up the lane and wha-la! advantage Lakers.  

That being said I think the Zen Master is missing a major opportunity.  I put it in my last blog so I'll keep it short, but why not use the Lakers plethora of size against the Nuggets severe lack of it all at once?  Put Bynum, Gasol, and Odom together.  You could even do it with Bryant and Ariza and have your shortest player at 6'6" and have and advantage at 3 of the 5 positions on the floor with the other two being a washes like this:

POS LA Denver Advantage
PG      Bryant         Billups       LA
SG       Ariza    Jones/Smith LA/None (Ariza's length would drive Smith nuts)
SF      Odom       Anthony           Denver   (however if Odom plays big, None)
PF      Gasol        Martin       LA
C             Bynum Nene     None

Then, when the benches come in, everything stays the same because Carter can't guard Farmar, Vujacic goes down to Smith,  Walton and Kleiza are a wash and LA has the advantage inside if they box out Birdman.  To me it makes too much sense to not to try, but as I've said before, Phil has 9 rings, I have as many as you do: 0.  

As for Cleveland...well...umm...yeah, they're screwed.  They don't have big enough wing players to match up with Orlando and thus they are gonna have to continue to get ridiculous performances from Lebron, AND his back-court mates are going to have to find their shot.  Mo Williams and Delonte West have been off all series and its shown as they should be down 3-0 and would be if not for LeShot.  Cleveland is clearly the better team however they just don't match up well with the Magic.  And the NBA is all about matchups.  But you've been paying attention, so you knew that.  Go you!

Remember you can always follow my much shorter thoughts (less than 140 characters to be exact) on Twitter at twitter.com/choffman223

Also, shoutout to Steve Mason of Mason and Ireland of 710 ESPN Radio in LA who is now reading the blog!  Thanks Steve, it really means a lot and I hope you enjoy it!


Saturday, May 23, 2009

I Had A Great Frickin Day!!!

There are good days and there are bad days.  Then there are great days.  Today was a great day.  Well at least in terms of sports.  First I played some basketball with a buddy of mine and won in 1-on-1, but nobody cares.  Now to the stuff you do care about: Laker thoughts and Yankee thoughts.  We'll go chronologically, Yankees first.

The New York Yankees have won 9 of 10 and for the first time in a year have put it all together.  Last year the Yanks lost a lot of games 2-1 and would follow it up by losing 10-9 the next night.  They could hit and they could pitch but never on the same night.  During the last ten games the Yanks have hit and pitched spectacularly.  You want two things out of your hitters.  To be balanced, where everybody is a legitimate threat so that you can't pitch around guys, and to be clutch.  During this streak there have been game winners from Melky Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Robinson Cano, and Alex Rodriguez.  To some extent all 4 are unexpected.  The first three aren't stars by any means and Alex Rodriguez is known to come up small in big spots.  However the last part of this isn't true at all.  Yes he's been horrible in the post-season but in the regular season he's been great in late game situations hitting countless walk-offs in the past few years.  This was no different today as he tied up the game off Brad Lidge which led to the eventual Milk Man walk-off.  Also, the pitching has been consistent for the first time in a year and a half.  All 5 starters are pitching well and in his last two starts C.C. Sabathia has gone deep into the game, which gives the bullpen a rest.  Also Chein-Mein Wang is on his way back so hopefully he'll come back strong and although I know it won't happen, I think Joba is the missing piece to the Yankee bullpen as an 8th inning stopper.  If Wang can come back and Hughes stays up that's 6 starters; send Joba to the pen and the Yankees, to me, are the unquestioned favorite in the AL.  (And remember I'm completely unbiased!!!)

Now onto the fresher topic: the Los Angeles Lakers.  Fresh off of Game 3 here are the things on the forefront of my mind.

1) Thank God the Lakers have Luke Walton.  
What?  He played 14 minutes and didn't score. Yeah, I got that.  However in those 14 minutes he played the best defense all night on Carmelo Anthony including Melo's 4th foul (an offensive foul) that sent him to the bench.  He also threw a beautiful lob to Kobe that was a key play in the game.  That reminded me of my next point:

2) Execution on out of bounds plays has to do with personnel and execution.
The Lakers will never have a problem on an inbounds play in terms of personnel because of Lamar Odom and the aforementioned Luke Walton.  On offense you want a guy who is big and a great passer to get the ball inbounds.  Luke Walton is a great passer and is 6'10".  Lamar Odom is also a good passer and is 6'10" so Phil Jackson has options.  Denver doesn't.  Cleveland doesn't.  Orlando does (Who do? Hedo).  On defense you want someone to guard the inbounder who is not only tall but long.  Every team left has one of those.  

Now for the execution aspect.  On offense, you want a play where you get your best player open in a clutch situation or for a non critical (non-end game play) you want an easy pass.   In game 2, Phil Jackson broke the cardinal rule saying Kobe would have been fouled and Derek Fisher (more on him below) was the man with the ball.  I'm not saying Phil's a bad coach, but to foul Kobe successfully (without putting him on the line for 3) in that situation would have been nearly impossible.  Mike Brown in Game 2 followed the rule and Lebron hit the game winner.  Now for defensive side.  You want the man guarding the inbounder to make whatever pass is being attempted difficult and you want your players to be smart.  First how to do it: Lamar Odom and the Lakers.  Odom twice in this series has made the inbounds pass incredibly difficult for Anthony Carter (Game 1) and Kenyon Martin (Game 3) and that has resulted in two game-clinching Trevor Ariza steals.  Now for the "how not to do it" portion of the program: the Orlando Magic.  First, watch the play here.  Now pay atttention class:  

Mistake 1:  What the hell is Rashard Lewis doing?  You have two options: 1) Guard the ball so that 6'1" Mo Willams can't see a damn thing because you're big 6'10" frame means he can't see or 2) double team Lebron in case he Hedo loses him.  Rashard Lewis chose neither and instead was in no man's land and thus was useless.

Mistake 2:  What the hell is Mikael Pietrus doing?  There is 1.0 second left on the clock.  It's a catch and shoot situation.  There is no time for a play to be run.  Watch again as Pietrus chases Sasha Pavlovic into the backcourt.  Let him go!!!!   As soon as your man is out of shooting range you become a roamer on defense, which against Cleveland means find 23!!! If Sasha Pavlovic beats you with a 50 footer, you shake his hand and go back to Orlando tied 1-1 with a smile on your face.  You cannot let Lebron get the ball.  Hedo Turkoglu did everything right.  He denied the lob and forced a contested 28' fade away three.  Lebron just hit it.  However the rest of his team dropped the ball and thus the series is tied instead of Orlando going home to Mickey having beaten Cleveland the same amount of times that Cleveland lost in the regular season all year.

Now back to the Lakers.

3) Will Derek Fisher please put on the shirt and tie and coach????
D-Fish has been amazing for LA over the years.  He has hit huge clutch shots this season and even some in the playoffs.  However that's all he's done and he no longer plays defense like he used to to the point where he is now a liability.  He can't keep up with Chauncey Billups.  Jordan Farmar has the skill to be an elite PG in the NBA and all he needs is some run.  He is a player built on confidence and it's hard to be confident playing 15 minutes a game, the least of the three point guards.  Yes he's had a rough stretch but look at the one game where he got significant run, when Fisher was suspended in Houston.  LA played their best road game of the playoffs and he played extremely well.  Shannon Brown has also played well.  Farmar and Brown create match up problems for Denver because of their quickness.  Right now I could guard Derek Fisher.  Please Fish, put on a suit and coach.  We love the leadership, but we can't have you anywhere near a basketball right now.  Love, all right-minded Laker fans.

4) When did Trevor Ariza become LA's best shooter (outside of that Bryant feller)???
It used to be Sasha Vujacic hands down.  However if Sasha were a Coors Light, his mountains would be blue.  He's cold.  Really cold.  And although he's kept the shooters mentality and has kept shooting he hasn't snapped out of it yet.  Meanwhile,  I feel like Trevor Ariza hasn't missed a shot all series and I know he hasn't missed a clutch shot.  He's become a knock-down shooter and is as confident as any player on the floor right now.  He's also playing smart, picking his shots.  Also he hasn't fallen in love with his jumper like many players (J.R. Smith *cough cough*) do when they get hot, still attacking the rim every chance he gets.  Simply put, Trevor Ariza=stud.

5)  I know it sounds crazy but...
The Lakers have 3 big men that are nearly 6'11" and above.  The Nuggets have no size except Nene and Chris Andersen, who despite his great blocking ability from the weak-side can't guard on the block to save his life.  Why not use them all together???? I simply don't understand it. Give me a lineup of Bryant, Ariza, Odom, Gasol, and Bynum.  Kobe and Lamar are fully capable of playing the point in terms of ball handling and Odom has the range to play outside at the 3.  This also allows Odom to play Anthony, which he can with his size, Ariza to play Billups which is a huge size advantage for the Lakers, and it leaves Kobe to play Dahntay Jones aka roam freely wherever he wants.  You can also sub Luke Walton for Odom and it still works.  This would mean giving Josh Powell a little more run to spell the big guys but it would work.  It keeps Fish on the bench and creates a huge size advantage LA.  You then can go small with Farmar and Vujacic when Billups comes out, and Denver doesn't have the personnel on the bench to match LA's speed.  Phil has 9 rings.  I have 0.  However this makes too much sense to me not to try.  

That's it for now.  More to come in the days to come.  Possibly even a "One Big Thing" style blog.  I believe they call that a tease in the business.